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Energy and Storage Modeling for Hydropower Projects:
The model consists of three independent sub-components: 1) Energy and Storage, 2) Revenue, and (3) Costing.

The Energy and Storage model has been built within Excel and regulates a storage reservoir on a daily basis to maximize Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) while working within operating parameters. The NPV and IRR are functions of both the Revenue and Costing models.

The Revenue model is built within Excel and depends on the specific call for power Energy Purchase Agreement (EPA) terms. For the 2008 BCHydro Clean Call for Power, several components were built into the Revenue model, for example: 1. Three hourly subcategories were developed within the model for operation during Super Peak hours (1600-2000 Mon-Sat), Off Peak (2200-0600 Mon-Sat and all day Sun), and Peak (remaining hours). 2. Firm/non-firm energy pricing was applied. Firm energy pricing is paid for an amount of energy that is met or exceeded 80% of the time, in each delivery category (e.g. seasonal). 3. Monthly Time of Delivery (TOD) adjustment factors were applied to the power to determine the actual price paid for power at the TOD. The highest TOD factor is in the winter during Super Peak (142% of bid price), while the lowest is during freshet in Off Peak (69% of bid price).

The Costing model is based on a calibrated version of RETScreen, a renewable energy modeling spreadsheet published by NRCan. Combining the Energy and Storage, Revenue, and Costing models, an NPV / IRR analysis was performed and optimization routines were then used to find the maximum NPV and IRR based on different operating scenarios, project sizing, bid parameters (such as term length, bid price), amount of storage, and proposed firm energy profile. One particular project we’re working on employs both run-of-river hydropower and high-lake storage hydropower projects. The optimization involved synthesis of the two types of hydropower in order to maximize the firm energy profile.



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